As if the holiday season — from Halloween through December — isn’t challenging enough for brands and retailers, this fall the industry must brace for potential changes in consumer spending caused by the presidential election. The good news is that with predictive modeling consumer brands can anticipate what’s going to happen right now.
AI and ML solutions look forward, that’s just what they do, reviewing not only historical data but ingesting macroeconomic insights, social listening sentiments, retailer sales data, competing brand data, shopper loyalty information, and anything else analysts want to include. AI uniquely aids consumer brands with better commercial planning and forecasting around election sentiment and drives efficient holiday strategies by optimizing the supply chain and predicting demand to come.
As consumer sentiment sways between the election and holiday season, CPGs can stay ahead of the curve by preparing now for potential market fluctuations. Whether it’s an election-driven downturn or a festive shopping surge, AI offers invaluable support by providing real-time insights into evolving trends. By leveraging advanced analytics and forecasting tools, brands can confidently navigate the unpredictable months ahead and optimize their holiday strategies to meet consumer demand head-on. Let’s explore how AI can empower consumer brands to thrive during these pivotal moments.
1. Forecasting presidential election impact on brands
The retail industry has a history of worrying about elections more than it needs to. While one university study finds the election doesn’t impact consumer spending, another pundit says the election can boost spending.
While it’s necessary to take in survey information and the advice of thought leaders, AI can provide unbiased, data-driven insights. Consumer brands can use advanced analytics to forecast the performance of every brand in their portfolio, category trends, retailer sales numbers, volume swings, and whether consumers will trade down to specific competing brands.
AI applications deliver a range of scenarios on consumer confidence, discretionary spend, interest rates, and macroeconomic trends to accurately articulate how brands will perform and erase the “unpredictable” nature of an election outcome.
2. Optimizing the supply chain to master holiday inventory
Getting a handle on inventory during the hustle and bustle of holiday shopping can be too much for humans to handle. Rather than tackling inventory swings as they happen, consumer brand analysts can have AI anticipate availability, so brands produce and distribute products to the right stores.
This includes tightening an online sales strategy to avoid cannibalized sales, managing inventory for stores that are used for online fulfillment, and ensuring prices and promotions are effective across channels. And just as managing products can be difficult during the holidays, labor shortages typically challenge brands and retailers. AI modeling can forecast how labor and direct-store-delivery might impact brand performance.
With AI, brands can develop a full holiday picture, preparing brands with an outlook on how products expect to move, where, and with what support on hand.
3. Uncovering incrementality of holiday innovations
Brands unveil unique products during the holidays, such as fun-sized candy packages for Halloween or holiday bundles for gift-giving.
Rather than relying on the hope that innovative new items will land with consumers, brands can test creations inside AI models to see what incremental sales will occur and where there will be a demand transfer around the new products. Brands can avoid cannibalization by new innovations and see how predicted category assortments will perform with innovative items in place.
AI-powered insights and forecasts work to inform brands on what innovative products will be the most effective for the upcoming holidays, what products to retire, and where to place the items to get the most gain.
4. Managing marketing spend across channels for busy seasons
Research from eMarketer suggests total retail sales in the U.S., online and in-store, will increase nearly 5% this year compared to last year’s sales during November and December. The total dollar amount is expected to surpass $1.3 trillion, according to the research.
Using advanced analytics for attribution helps consumer brands develop an accurate marketing spend along with effective ad types across channels to earn a piece of the holiday sales growth.
Through these insights, brands know what’s incremental and can better optimize assortments, pricing strategies, and promotions to capitalize on high-traffic periods like the holidays and adjust accordingly to meet election-year dynamics.
Working with strategic retailer partners
Retailers rely on consumer brands to bring expert-level insights into how their products will perform during key seasons — be it mastering the holidays or navigating a presidential election. No matter the event or season ahead, predictive analytics help brands perform their best.
CPGs that use AI based insights to highlight which assortments and innovative products will sell best at which stores will earn a retailer’s trust long beyond the holiday season.
Become a category leader by delivering predictive insights to retailer partners and winning the final months of 2024. Contact Insite AI to learn how your brand can master the trends.
